CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-26T06:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34212/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and X1.8 flare from Active Region 13873 (S16E60) starting around 2024-10-26T06:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible over the southeast limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193, with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 starting around 07:50Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T04:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs
CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):
Notes:
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 27-Oct 29 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 27-Oct 29 2024
Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.33
03-06UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67
06-09UT 3.33 5.00 (G1) 3.33
09-12UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 3.33
12-15UT 2.67 3.67 3.00
15-18UT 2.33 3.00 2.67
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.67
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.33
Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions or greater are likely on 28 Oct due to
anticipated onset of a CME that left the Sun on 26 Oct.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 27-Oct 29 2024
Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29
S1 or greater 99% 50% 50%
Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater conditions are expected to continue
through 27 Oct, with continued elevated favorable conditions 28-29 Oct
as significant regions rotate closer to center disk.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 26 2024 0719 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 27-Oct 29 2024
Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 30% 30% 30%
Rationale: R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a change of
R3 (Strong), from 27-29 Oct due to several complex regions on the
visible disk.
Lead Time: 37.85 hour(s)Difference: -0.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2024-10-26T14:22Z
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